How the numbers are calculated

The season boundary is July 1 00:00 UTC. Matches in January–June belong to the season that started the previous calendar year — so a match on 15 February 2026 belongs to the 2025/26 season (which started 1 July 2025).

Historical data before the current season cutoff is retained in the database for head-to-head records but is excluded from the team and league betting statistics shown throughout the site.

A match counts as BTTS Yes if both the home side and the away side scored at least one goal. The percentage is the proportion of the team's matches (at the selected venue) that ended BTTS Yes.

A team with a home BTTS % of 70% has seen both teams score in 7 out of every 10 of their home games this season.

Counts the share of matches involving this team (at the selected venue) that produced three or more total goals. Strictly greater than 2 — a 1-1 draw (2 goals) counts as Under 2.5.

The proportion of matches where the team kept a clean sheet — i.e. the opponent scored zero goals. At home this measures defensive solidity on home turf; away it reflects the team's ability to shut out opponents on the road.

Standard counts divided by games played. Win/draw/loss are determined from the team's perspective: if the team scored more than it conceded it is a win, equal is a draw, less is a loss. Average goals scored and conceded are simple arithmetic means across the match sample.

Averages the home team's BTTS rate in their home games with the away team's BTTS rate in their away games. Venue-specific rates are used because teams behave differently at home and away — blending season-wide rates would wash out that difference.

Returns 0 if either team has fewer than one finished match in the relevant venue sample.

Same averaging logic as Combined BTTS, applied to Over 2.5 rates. A 70% combined O2.5 means the home team produces 3+ goals in 70% of their home games and the away team sees 3+ goals in 70% of their away games on average.

A simplified Dixon-Coles-style blend: expected home goals is the average of how many the home team typically scores at home and how many the away team typically concedes away. Expected away goals mirrors this from the away side.

This is not a shot-quality xG model — it uses goals rather than shot locations. It is useful for ballpark goal-count expectations but should not be treated as a precise predictive model. A shot-quality model would require event-level data not currently in our feed.

The Wilson Score lower bound is a conservative estimate of the true underlying rate, accounting for sample size. A small sample with a high observed rate gets pulled down toward 50%; a large sample stays close to the observed rate.

Before the Wilson Score is computed, two thresholds are applied:

• Minimum 5 games at the relevant venue in the current season. Fewer than 5 is too noisy regardless of hit rate.
• Minimum 60% hit rate. Below 60% the angle is not compelling enough to surface as a bet, even with a large sample.

Qualifying candidates across all three angle types (BTTS, Over 2.5, Clean Sheet) and all upcoming fixtures are ranked by Wilson Score. The highest-scoring candidate becomes the Bet of the Day. Ties are broken by sample size.